By Stephen Yellin
Note: For this article, I am relying on David Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Elections. His website can be found at US Election Atlas
In just two days, voters will go to the polls in New Jersey to elect its Governor. Jon Corzine is locked in a dead heat with Republican Chris Christie, and it’s clear that the winner will be the one that more successfully turns out their base of support. In a race that will probably be decided by a few percentage points either way, I feel it is worth examining where both sides will be expecting their votes to come from. Recent statewide elections in New Jersey have seen the Democrats win by comfortable margins, which will not be the case this year. What example, then, can we draw on to determine (as best we can) how New Jersey’s 21 counties will vote in a close statewide election?